Daily Status, August 29
Daily Status, August 29:
The statewide numbers are no longer decreasing. The increases are being driven by Radford. Three of the five identified regions of the state are doing ok: flat to creasing, but the absolute numbers remain just above the threshold of many states for entry without quarantine (we are at 11.5/100K, the threshold is 10/100K). The only region performing poorly is SW VA. We need to be cautious throughout the state. Yesterday, the sky was not falling and today, we are not doing great. But, as locations go, much of Virginia is improving, no overall region is particularly concerning. We are around the median for all states.
The three week growth rates are (in fraction per day)
Central VA: 1.004
Hampton Roads/Eastern VA: 0.979
SW VA: 1.014
NW VA: 1.002
The state as a whole is flat.
The following charts are for the 5 regions/trends. Looking at the trends, there may be a need to create a new event for SW and NW Virginia. This is mostly due to the of case surges at Radford & JMU. Note that the total number of new cases in East/Hampton Roads is now about the same as Northern VA (though NoVA has a significantly more people).
One interesting aspect of the virus currently is the trend lines have been constant for NW, SW VA are showing deviance from the trend line. I may define new events: college students return. Those will go in tomorrow.
VDH # Case
Est # Case*
William and Mary
Large Scale Community Spread:
RADFORD (linked to the university Dashboard)
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Why I did this: About the blog
State Actions: Impact on Growth: TBD
Figure Descriptions: TBD
Other Sites: John's Hopkins
Masks Work -- but the following link does not: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-06067-8.
Kids can pass covid to parents: Pediatric SARS-CoV-2: Clinical Presentation, Infectivity, and Immune Responses