Daily Status, Sept. 18: UVA is of concern; College students are infecting the broader communties.
Daily Status, Sept. 18
On the college front, the big change is at UVA. I thought UVA was holding its own, but then, UVA reported 45 cases which is either unlock or the beginning of an outbreak. Virginia Tech and JMU continue to perform poorly, but the daily new case rate at both schools is dropping, which is promising. That was the first indiction of improvement at Radford. Radford and VCU are stable now. Unfortunately, the outbreak at JMU continues to spread, but at apparently a slower rate; only about half the students returned home, and those that did brought the disease home. The VT outbreak continues to grow, as does the smaller UVA outbreak. And there are some preliminary indication of an outbreak at ODU.
We have completed the tradition from COVID-19 being an urban disease to being a rural disease. The urban centers of NOVA and Hampton Roads are showing the lowest infection rates whereas the highest rates are in the SW, and NW parts of the state which are mostly rural.
NOVA: .994 -- GMU
Central VA: 1.001 -- VCU
Hampton Roads/Eastern VA: 0.975-- W&M, CNU & ODU
SW VA: 0.974-- VT & Radford
NW VA: 0.990- JMU & UVA
The state as a whole is is flat with Rt at 1.000.
Daily case count per 100,000 is a often sited metric (below 10 (0.01%) statewide would take VA off the quarantine list . The following table shows the number per region. Again, NOVA and Eastern VA are doing the best, and NW & SW are doing the worst, but in those regions 35% of the cases were from the colleges.
The following charts are for the 5 regions For the last month or so, we note that NOVA have been flat at around 300 cases per day, but in the last several days that has dropped precipitously. Hampton Roads (Eastern) droppeed from about 800 to under 200. The rest of the state shown small declines. Again, SW VA, even with the lower population, has roughly the same number of cases than any other region.
Growth rate (%/day)
Estimates Cases Tot/LW **
% of population infected ***
Large Scale Community Spread:
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Other Sites: John's Hopkins
Kids can pass covid to parents: Pediatric SARS-CoV-2: Clinical Presentation, Infectivity, and Immune Responses