Daily Status, Sept. 24: The numbers make me somewhat optimistic.
Daily Status, Sept. 24
We have completed the tradition from COVID-19 being an urban disease to being a rural disease. The urban centers of NOVA and Hampton Roads are showing the lowest infection rates whereas the highest rates are in the SW, and NW parts of the state which are mostly rural. But, looking at the weekly numbers, it appears that the rural areas, whose outbreaks were driven by the influx of a carefree demographic (college students), seems to be improving. We are not out of the woods, but I am far more optimistic than I was even a few day ago. (The trends of lower numbers were beginning, but I have learned to wait several days).
NOVA: .988 -- GMU
Central VA: .994-- VCU
Hampton Roads/Eastern VA: 0.973-- W&M, CNU & ODU
SW VA: 0.966- VT & Radford
NW VA: 0.966- JMU & UVA
The state as a whole is is decreasing with Rt=0.987
The following table shows the number per 100k for each region. Again, NOVA and Eastern VA are doing the best, and NW & SW are doing the worst, but in those regions 35% of the cases were from the colleges.
In the following charts, I modified them slightly, by including the growth rates in the "action labels".
The following charts are for the 5 regions. in the chart that shows all regions, the drop at the end is a processing artifact (the filter I use can overstate the end points; it is decent but not as steep of a drop as indicated by the chart). The individual line charts show the actual data.
Growth rate (%/day)
Estimates Cases Tot/LW **
% of population infected ***
Large Scale Community Spread:
VCU seems to have the virus under control -- They have beaten back an outbreak, the % positive is good, and there are few new cases. It was promoted from RED to YELLOW. and now Green. The numbers have shown no significant increase in the last several days; quarantine and isolation space is becoming more prevalent. Being in an urban setting the zip-code and regional surveillance that works well at some of the other schools is not particularly helpful here. So, I have to rely on the dashboard.
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Other Sites: John's Hopkins
Kids can pass covid to parents: Pediatric SARS-CoV-2: Clinical Presentation, Infectivity, and Immune Responses