Sept 23: I suspect there was a data reporting issues...Numbers look too good.
Daily Status, Sept. 23
We have completed the tradition from COVID-19 being an urban disease to being a rural disease. The urban centers of NOVA and Hampton Roads are showing the lowest infection rates whereas the highest rates are in the SW, and NW parts of the state which are mostly rural.
NOVA: .990 -- GMU
Central VA: .990-- VCU
Hampton Roads/Eastern VA: 0.976-- W&M, CNU & ODU
SW VA: 0.961- VT & Radford
NW VA: 0.967- JMU & UVA
The state as a whole is is decreasing with Rt=0.987
The following table shows the number per 100k for each region. Again, NOVA and Eastern VA are doing the best, and NW & SW are doing the worst, but in those regions 35% of the cases were from the colleges.
In the following charts, I modified them slightly, by including the growth rates in the "action labels".
The following charts are for the 5 regions For the last month or so, we note that NOVA have been flat at around 300 cases per day. Hampton Roads (Eastern) dropped from about 800 to under 200. Since labor day, when the Governor relaxes restrictions on that region, the cases have started to rebound. The rest of the state shown small declines. Again, SW VA, even with the lower population, has roughly the same number of cases than any other region.
Growth rate (%/day)
Estimates Cases Tot/LW **
% of population infected ***
Large Scale Community Spread:
VCU seems to have the virus under control -- They have beaten back an outbreak, the % positive is good, and there are few new cases. It was promoted from RED to YELLOW. and now Green. The numbers have shown no significant increase in the last several days; quarantine and isolation space is becoming more prevalent. Being in an urban setting the zip-code and regional surveillance that works well at some of the other schools is not particularly helpful here. So, I have to rely on the dashboard.
1) You can repost / share in the entirety by forwarding the link, 2) If you want share partial content, you must receive my permission – I need to make sure you understand what I am saying. If anyone sees this work being used without attribution, please let me know as soon as possible. I am willing to have an informed discussion / debate on my approach, but I want to make sure the proper context is captured.
Other Sites: John's Hopkins
Kids can pass covid to parents: Pediatric SARS-CoV-2: Clinical Presentation, Infectivity, and Immune Responses