Dec 8: Fall surge resumes with vengeance

 Daily Status, Dec 8

Today is full update

The data have recovered from the thanksgiving holiday.

Situational Awareness

 

Big picture: after a pause in case growth caused by low testing, our case surge resumes.  Hunkering down is the advice of the day.  This is a high-risk time period.  

 

Yesterday, VA reported 3,860 new cases of COVID-19.  The last three days, all above 3,800, where the three highest daily totals; 5 days were in the top 7 days of number of covid cases. . Today’s count is significantly (1.5 standard deviations) above the three-week bias-adjusted average of 2,820 cases.

 

The current weekly total of 22,667 new cases (first time a 1 week total exceeded 20,000), or 3,238 cases per day, which works out to 38.8 cases/day/100K people. This is by far the highest case count to date,  The hospitalizations are at an all-time high (1918), which is consistent with the record case numbers.  The only good news is we have capacity for 3000 more COVID cases, or 2.5x, in VA hospitals, and we will not exceed that for at least a month at current growth rates.

 

The trends over the last three weeks now are showing an increase at 2.2 % per day or 16.7% per week.  

 

Projection for tomorrow: 3110, 90% chance the cases will be betwen 2333 - 4145

 

The testing numbers now show the percent positive to be about 2x the 5% metric over the last week (10.8%) which is often used to indicate sufficient testing. This is concerning because, as the percent positive increases, it is possible that some cases are being missed as the number of positives is constrained by the testing availability.  VA is tested about 2.1% of the population in the last week, down from 2.9% in the prior to thanksgiving.  Factoring in the test rates and the percent positive, it would not surprise me to find out we are missing between 50% & 80% of the case

 

When we look at the local ZIP code data, we see that the observed increases are almost universal across VA. I am comparing the current estimated % positive to that of one month ago. Note that almost all is a warmer color (further from blue and closer to yellow). This is an indication of the uniformity of the increase. As a practical matter, it means to be safe and careful, no matter where in VA you live, there is risk.








Regions

In the spring, COVID-19 in VA was primarily a concern in the DC suburbs. Over three to four weeks, (from late May to early June), NOVA recovered and for about a month the disease was under control to the point that restrictions were eased. Unfortunately, in eastern VA/Hampton Roads, the easing of restrictions resulted in a surge in cases which peaked just before August 1st resulting in stricter restrictions in that area. Since then, with the exception of growth on college campuses, the disease has been stable, excluding the rural parts of the state where safeguards (social distancing and masks) are largely ignored. Starting in October our weekly case count has been increasing throughout the Commonwealth, particularly in NOVA and SWVA, and NWVA

 



 

Looking at the weekly case count, we see that the numbers are higher than at any other point in the pandemic.

 

Regional growth rates (in fraction per day) continue to show degradation over the past three weeks. Note: It is easier to show a decline when the prior numbers increased. The current growth rates for the different regions are shown below.

 

NOVA:                                            1.037--GMU

Central VA:                                     1.028 -VCU

Hampton Roads/Eastern VA:         1.043 -W&M, CNU & ODU

SW VA:                                            1.031 -VA TECH & Radford

NW VA:                                            1.047 --JMU & UVA

 

The entire state is increasing with Rt=1.022

 

The following table shows the number per 100K for each region. Again, NOVA and Eastern VA are doing the best, and the mountainous regions in NW & SW continue having more cases. The concerning aspect is that in all regions the numbers for last week are significantly higher than the preceding three weeks. What is most concerning is that SW & NW VA are hitting significantly higher caseloads.

 

Daily Cases/100,000 

Region

Last month

Last week

NOVA

24.5

36.8

Eastern

19.3

27.1

Central

20.9

34.3

NW

26.3

68.5

SW

38.3

55.4

 

The following charts show all five regions of the Commonwealth over time.

The individual line charts show the unfiltered data per day, coupled with the trend lines. 

 

The trend lines show the different periods of growth.  

 

Early in the pandemic, the different parts of VA were functioning largely independently, with NOVA mimicking the northern states, and Hampton Roads mimicking the southern states. Since September 1, the regions have trended together. Starting in late September, NoVA and SWVA diverged from the rest of the state, a trend that continues today.

 

Currently SWVA has the greatest number of cases even though they have half the population of NOVA.  

Note that the effects at both ends of the chart are probably artifacts of the (seven-day polynomial filtering I use for averaging); the filter is poorly constrained in the first and last few days of the time history.  For those technically inclined, the filter is called a Savitzky-Golay filter, basically a moving window polynomial filter. At the edge (first and last days of the time series), the filter will over-compensate for the trend as it is unconstrained. I recommend the Wikipedia article if anyone is interested in more information, or contact me.












Local/Northern VA:

 

After the early peak in May (~1,000 cases per day), NOVA saw a sharp drop in all COVID metrics, reaching a broad valley in mid-June (~200 cases/day), which lasted until around August 1st.  By Sept 1, NOVA increased to 300 but the caseload dropped to about 150 by late in the month. Since then we have had a steady increase averaging up to a current value of 928 cases per day, but with the last three days being the three highest says.

 


Fairfax Co.

 1.035

Arlington Co.

 1.012

City of Alexandria

 1.029

Prince William Co.

 1.011

Loudoun Co.

 1.032

The number above is Rt:  Rt is an exponential time constant, where the number of cases in a time segment is approximately, n=Ao Rt ^ t, where Ao is the number of cases at the start of the segment, Rt is the exponential growth rate, and t is the number of days since the start of the segment.  So, if Rt is greater than 1, it is growing exponentially, if it is less than one, it is decreasing each day.  

 

 

Another way to look at it, todays number are approximately the growth rate times yesterday's numbers.  This is the exponential time constant.  With time constants above 1, we are experiencing exponential growth in the case numbers.

 

Looking at the trends, the strong downward trend in daily case count we observed since around September 1st has ended.  We now see significant jump in cases in every jurisdiction.


 


The difference in the colors (contrast) in the NOVA map is increasing. In addition, the NOVA map is warming (as is happening throughout the Commonwealth). At this point, it seems likely that this is related to the fall surge others had predicted.  It is worth noting, though, that Vienna/Oakton is doing better than most of the region. 

 


 

Most localities in NOVA have case counts near or above 10/100K/day.  In Vienna, for example, we were under five in late September but are now at 9.1/100K/day.

 

Region

Last month

Last week

Growth rate (%/day)

Fairfax County:

Vienna

19.4

24.3

 3.4

McLean

18.9

23.6

 2.7

S. Alexandria

29.1

33.1

 3.4

Reston/Herndon

20.9

24.3

 3.3

Annandale/Fall Church

29.3

39.2

 5.7

Fairfax

21.1

23.4

 3.8

Arlington/Alexandria:

 No. Arlington

23.7

26.1

 0.9

 So. Arlington

33.0

42.6

 5.2

 Alexandria

28.1

33.1

 4.1





Vienna'a  growth stabilization observed around thanksgiving has ended.  Our absolute numbers are has high as then have been, particularly in 22182.




 Age Distribution: 

I am not updating this section for the time being except for the charts.  I will leave it here as is for a while longer--at times it can be very interesting.  This is particularly so when specific age groups do not follow other groups. For example, teens and 20-somethings surged in early September while the other age groups did not due to the outbreaks at colleges.

 




Colleges

Given that most colleges are shutting down for the semester in the next week, the report on colleges will be on hiatus.


Attribution:

1) You can repost/ share this information in its entirety by forwarding the entire link, or,  2) If you want to share partial content, you must receive my permission. This is proprietary information and I need to make sure you understand what I am saying. If anyone sees that this work being used without attribution, please let me know as soon as possible. I am willing to have an informed discussion/debate on my approach, but I want to make sure the proper context is captured

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