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Showing posts from September 7, 2020

Evidence for college student hospitalizations

I am thinking 2-3 students from JMU and 1 from Va Tech have been hospitalized.  The here are the hospitalizations in the Central Shenandoah Health district9/1.   1
9/2    1
9/3    1
9/4   2
9/5   4
9/6    1
9/7    1 Here are those for Harrisonburg:   9/1 0
   9/2  0
   9/3  1
   9/4  1
   9/5  2
   9/6  0
   9/7  1 Here are the hospitalizations by age group (20-29)    9/1  0    9/2  0    9/3  1    9/4  0    9/5  1    9/6   0    9/7  0
This means potentially 2 college aged students were hospitalized, and at least one, possibly both were from harrisonburg (83 % of the cases in that group, or 483 of 852 cases were from Harrisonburg).  
This means that at least one, and possibly two cases are probably attributed to JMU.
Similar analysis gives VT possibly 1.

Virginia COVID-19 Status for Sept. 7: Still college outbreaks

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Daily Status, Sept. 7Reminder:  any sections that are unchanged since yesterday are grayed out.
I wrote a supplementary blog describing how I monitor colleges from zipcodes.
I have been looking at the COVID-19 numbers in Virginia since March 8;  I started writing this first with Facebook posts in late March, sharing them to VVCP in Mid-May, and converting to a blog format in Mid August.  That mean, I have noticed trends.  Some are statistically significant, some are not.  One trend is the Monday of a three day weekend will not be typical.  Today is the third such event.  The first was Memorial Day -- that was high because of supplementary testing done in Northern VA over the weekend.  But July 6 (Monday) remains Virginia's lowest number of reported cases since mid April.  Today, is also low -- nearly the lowest number since the July 4 weekend:  645 cases.  I do not think today's or tomorrow's numbers will be particularly meaningful because of the holiday.  Therefore, I do no…

How I monitor an area, or dealing with clutter.

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I have been spending significant amounts of time examining data for colleges.  Only, I have very little visibility into what is happening directly on campus, just the schools dashboard.  Fortunately, the schools are located in fixed geographic regions.  For example, almost all Va Tech students live in Blacksburg in the Zipcode of 24060.  And, the state gives the following data by zip code:ReportDate    
ZIPCode    
NumberofCases    
NumberofTestingEncounters   
NumberofPCRTestingEncounters
The number of cases and testing are cumulative numbers.  But, by taking the time derivative (e.g., subtracting one day from the previous day), I can get the number of cases and tests per day.  And from that, I can derive a metric of percent positive.For Va Tech, this looks like:
My overall approach is to look at the baseline number of cases (before the students arrive), compute the mean and standard deviation of the pre-arrival data, and track based on the number of standard deviations above the mean.For …