Showing posts from September 8, 2020

Using NYC data to estimate the lethality of COVID-19

I have seen many reports suggesting that COVID-19 is not a big deal; that the death rate is about 0.1-0.2%, rather than the higher numbers.  I have decided to look at the best documented test case we have:  NYC.  The first question is, how many people really contracted COVID-19.  The good news, is NYC department of health has been aggressive with antibody/serology testing.  At this time, about 1.8 million NYC residents have been tested for COVID antibodies, out of 8.55 million people.  The data can be found at this link:  NYC serology Study, as of Sept 1 . The data show that 26% of NYC residents have antibodies, or 2.23 million people had the disease.  This is significantly higher than the numbers of reported positives, but at the time of the outbreak in NYC, only the sickest were able to get tests.  So, 2.23 million people were infected.   Serology cases:       2230000 "confirmed Cases":    241000 Deaths                        23736 Hospitalizations.        ~88000 If we use

Daily Status, Sept. 8

  Daily Status, Sept. 8 Reminder:  any sections that are unchanged since yesterday are grayed out. I wrote a supplementary blog describing how  I monitor colleges from zipcodes. Note:  today's story is incomplete data:  the data from today were submitted yesterday, which was a holiday.  I think the numbers were either late or not reported from some regions.  Because of this, I am not planing on changing much the text.  The tables and figures will be updated.  But expect a lot of grayed out numbers. Summary/Situational Awareness Usually, during the COVID-19 pandemic, at a given time, parts of the commonwealth have low case counts, parts have  high  COVID-19 numbers...some areas are improving, and others are getting worse.  That remains the case now, with one group (colleges) increasing the COVID-19 number by 10% per day, while the state COVID-19 numbers (excluding that group) are essentially flat.  The good news is few of the hospitalizations for COVID-19 are from college students (