Showing posts from September 12, 2020

Daily Update, Sept 12: evidence for college students infecting the senior citizens?

Daily Status, Sept. 12Reminder:  any sections that are unchanged since yesterday are grayed out.
Changes for today: 1) I modified my approach on estimating the number of cases based on % positive. 2) I have added growth rate to the local activity tables. 3) I am exploring age distribution of cases in the regions with college outbreaks.
Summary/Situational AwarenessA scenario that is potentially really dangerous in unfolding some regions with college towns:  it looks like the cases are moving from the student population to the general (and in particular senior) population.  I am not sure of the mechanism.  But the numbers are showing a sharp increase in senior citizen cases in the health districts containing JMU, VT & Radford.  There is a lesser increase middle aged people.  
With that said, it It looks like some colleges are either getting a handle on the virus or achieved herd immunity: Radford and VCU are stable now.  Unfortunately, the outbreak at JMU continues to spread; only abo…