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Showing posts from September 23, 2020

Sept 23: I suspect there was a data reporting issues...Numbers look too good.

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  Daily Status, Sept. 23 Reminder:  any sections that are unchanged since yesterday are grayed out.   Situational Awareness Some days, you look at the numbers, and shake your head.  Today, the number of new cases is low -- very low.  Depending on assumptions of the distribution, we are 2 (normal) to 2.5 (log-normal) 𝛔 below the mean, meaning this should happen about 2.5 to about 1% of the time randomly.  Alternatively, either something went wrong in the the data collection or things are really improving (statistics changing).  My best guess is a data collection issues (computer issue?).  And in a day or two we will have a huge number of cases: 2-3  𝛔  above the mean.  Because of this, I do not plan to spend much time interpreting the numbers;  I will document them, but any text will be unchanged.  Today had the fewest cases reported since the July 4 weekend. Across the commonwealth of Virginia, there were 580 today reported new cases of COVID-19, which is more than 2  𝛔   below the