Showing posts from September 25, 2020

Daily Status, Sept. 25: are we turning a corner? I hope so.

  Daily Status, Sept. 25 Reminder:  any sections that are unchanged since yesterday are grayed out.   Situational Awareness I am happy to report things are again pretty good; today showed the lowest number of cases on a Friday since July 4th Weekend.    Today, Virginia has 941 newly diagnoses COVID cases.  One thing to understand is the number of cases is usually higher on Thursday, Friday and Saturdays, and lower on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  If we look at 7 day numbers, we have averaged 818 cases (9.8/100K), which is 2.4 standard deviations below the mean weekly number for the last 10 weeks.  This should happen, randomly less than 1% of the time, which means there is statistical significance to the weekly numbers.   Overall, cases are decreasing  for the last three week at 1.3%/day, or 8% a week.  While numbers at colleges are up, most of it is at three schools: UVA, VT and JMU. few weeks ago three individual colleges (Radford, VT and  JMU) were near or above 100 cases.  The only s