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Showing posts from September 29, 2020

Daily Status, Sept. 29. Not a bad day

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Daily Status, Sept. 29Reminder:  any sections that are unchanged since yesterday are grayed out.   Situational AwarenessToday, Virginia has 943 newly diagnosed COVID cases, which is just above the 21 day average, and well under 1 standard deviation. If we look at 7 day numbers, we have averaged 787 cases (9.4/100K), which is 3.2 standard deviations below the mean weekly number for the last 11 weeks;  This event has about a 1 in 1000 chance of happening randomly, so, it probably significant:  our cases are declining (or the reporting is faulty, however multiple days of faulty reporting is unlikely).  Overall, cases are decreasing  for the last three week at 1.8%/day, or 12% a week.  There were 73 new cases associated with colleges and most of those cases are from UVA, VT and JMU.  
Regionally, all districts showing are flat to negative case growth. The testing numbers now show the percent positive to be just above the 5% metric that is often used to indicate sufficient testing (e.g., is …