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Showing posts from October 1, 2020

Daily Status, October 1: A good way to start a month

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Daily Status, October 1Reminder:  any sections that are unchanged since yesterday are grayed out.   See my rant against press coverage in commentary Situational AwarenessWE ARE NOW OFF THE NY/NJ QUARANTINE LIST!
Today, Virginia has 450 newly diagnosed COVID cases, which which is two standard deviations below the 21 day average. If we look at 7 day numbers, we have averaged 747 cases (8.9/100K), which is 3.1 standard deviations below the mean weekly number for the last 12 weeks; this has been a statistically significant decline as randomly, it would happen about once every 14 years, suggesting either there is an issue with the data or there is a decline, but this is not random. Since this decline has been present for a few weeks now, it appears to be real.  Overall, cases are decreasing  for the last three week at 2.8%/day, or 18% a week.  There were 69 new cases associated with colleges and most (60) of those cases are from UVA, VT and JMU.  
Regionally, all districts showing are flat to …