Showing posts from October 10, 2020

Daily Status, Oct. 10: Incomplete data -- I did what I could

  Daily Status, October 10 Reminder:  any sections that are unchanged since yesterday are grayed out.   I have two updates to the blog today: 1) I now provide my expectation on the numbers for tomorrow.  This estimate assumes the current trends continue, and updates based on the weekly trends and the current regional trends. 2) I added two tables showing risks based on age and the number of interactions.  One is for no co-morbidities, and the other is for multiple co-morbidities.  The table is an attempt to quantify the impact of actions:  the likelihood of death.  And I assume if you interact with an infected person, you will COVID (that is not correct, of course).  The numbers are based on the prevalence of the disease in the vicinity of Vienna, VA.   Situational Awareness The update from VDH is somewhat incomplete:  the testing and zip code data was not published.  As such, I will not be updating any segments that are based on that (though the new segment on risks will be updated us