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Showing posts from November 15, 2020

Situational Awareness: Nov 15: The trends continue

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  Situational Awareness:  Nov 15 Today, I am giving an  abbreviated  report. Situational Awareness Big picture: We are well into the fall surge in COVID-19 Cases.  I do not know how bad it will get, but it is getting worse.     Local: The caseload in Vienna doubled in the last month, but leveled off.  Because the case numbers are low, random variations can make it more difficult to assess the trends.  But they are increasing.  Elsewhere in NOVA, cases are  increasing with a doubling rate of about 45 days. Yesterday, VA reported 1,161 new cases of COVID. The data  were r eported by VDH on Nov 15, 2020 slightly below the three - week bias-adjusted average of 1,211 cases.     Viewed over the last seven days, VA reported 9,785 cases, or 1,398 cases per day, which works out to 16.7 cases/100K people. This is highest weekly number confirmed cases during the pandemic, though it is likely the May numbers were significantly under-reported by a factor of four. The best way to demonstrate that is