Showing posts from December 1, 2020

Nov 30: Lower testing numbers through the holiday means lower reported cases, but not fewer infections.

  Daily Status, Nov 30 Today is a full update The data are impacted thanks to the Thanksgiving holiday.    Situational Awareness Big picture: There is an apparent pause in the case growth.  This is probably a direct result of fewer test results being reported during the 4 days before the weekend compared with the 4 day weekend (2776/day vs 2234/day). This is probably a result of statistically fewer tests conducted over the holiday weekend.  In all probability we will not return to background activity for several days.  Expectations are holiday travel and gathering will result in an increase in cases though we will not know for certain until around 12/10.     Yesterday, VA reported 2,228 new cases of COVID-19.  Our fall surge has paused for at least one week, but I expect this is more a result of reduced holiday testing than case reduction.  If that is the case, numbers will surge in the next several days (such a possible surge is not factored in my numeric estimates). Today’s count is