Showing posts from December 31, 2020

December 31: Stability may be better than growth, or it may be an illusion of poor testing

  Daily Status, Dec 31 Today is full update This is the final update for 2020.  I am sorry these have become so sporadic, but my own health challenges remain, having had to recover from a nasty bacterial infection which resulted in a nearly 1 week hospitalization, and a pause in my cancer treatments. Situational Awareness   Big picture: Like the week after thanksgiving, the number this week (after Christmas) seem to be incomplete.  On the surface, numbers appear to be stable – not growing.  But, if we look at hospitalizations (which are independent of testing imitations), we see that the numbers hospitalized are at 2570 – about 1000 (50%) more than one month ago.  This suggests that actual numbers are probably 50% above where they were in late December; prior to December, we had no days with more than 4000 cases; in December there were 9; At the same time, our precent positive continues to increase, currently at 13..6%, suggesting we are missing more than half of all cases (though that