VA COVID Status, Jan 21, 2021: The three days of large case numbers (Sat-Mon) appears to be temporary. Good news.

 VA COVID Status, Jan 21, 2021

Today is full update

The introduction section, situation awareness, is updated with every post.  The figures and tables in the document are always updated, but the text in the remainder of the document is only changed as needed.

 

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Situational Awareness

Big picture: Throughout the Commonwealth of VA, in the last two or three days, we have reverted to our prior case load of about 4,000-5000 cases per day.  The cause of the three day surge, adding an extra 10000 cases or so, is unknown.  Hospitalizations are down to about 3000 cases.  This could be the result of the vaccination of the highest risk people.  Week over week numbers, are up.  The testing / percent positive has decreased to 12.3%, suggesting that fewer cases are being missed.  While it is possible that some of the case increase is the result of the testing of college students prior to arrival back on campus, that seems unlikely because the total number of college students in Virginia (~420,000), assuming ½ the college students are tested, 210,000 tests would have been initiated, and using current infection rates, we would expect 1,000 infected students at most.  In other words, I do not know why we had the extra cases.  It appears to be a temporary phenomenon though.   For now, hunkering down is the advice of the day.  This is a high-risk time period.  The good news is the vaccine is present, which (with a little luck), will mark the end of the pandemic (once complete).


Since Monday, Virginia’s caseload has remained below 5000, with reporting numbers totalling 13,055.  In the prior three days, we say 23,916 cases.  Today’s count close to 1 standard-deviations BELOW the three-week bias-adjusted average of 5,291 cases


The current weekly total of 41,765 new cases, or 5966 cases per day, which works out to 714 cases/day/100K people. This is down slightly from the last several days..  The hospitalizations are down decreasing, down to about 3000 cases. Clearly the Sunday number of 4100 was an anomaly. We continue to have capacity for 3000 more COVID cases in Virginia Hospitals, or about double the current numbers of COVID patients, and we will not exceed that for at least a month at current growth rates.


The trends over the last three weeks now are showing an increase at 0.8% per day or 5.75% per week.  


Projection for tomorrow: 5,331, with a 90% chance the cases will be between 4054 - 7028.


The testing numbers now show the percent positive to be about 3x the 5% metric over the last week (% positi at 12.3%).  The 5% metric is often used to indicate sufficient testing. This is concerning because, as the percent positive increases, it is possible that some cases are being missed as the number of positives is constrained by the testing availability.  VA is tested about 2.2% of the population in the last week, down from 2.9% in the week prior to thanksgiving.  Factoring in the test rates and the percent positive, it would not surprise me to find out we are missing between 50% & 80% of the case


When we look at the local ZIP code data, we see that the observed increases are almost universal across VA. I am comparing the current estimated % positive to that of one month ago. Note that almost all is a warmer color (further from blue and closer to yellow). This is an indication of the uniformity of the increase. As a practical matter, it means to be safe and careful, no matter where in VA you live, there is risk.

 





Today
Oct 1



 

 

Regions

In the spring, COVID-19 in VA was primarily a concern in the DC suburbs. Over three to four weeks, (from late May to early June), NOVA recovered and for about a month the disease was under control to the point that restrictions were eased. Unfortunately, in eastern VA/Hampton Roads, the easing of restrictions resulted in a surge in cases which peaked just before August 1st resulting in stricter restrictions in that area. Since then, with the exception of growth on college campuses, the disease has been stable, excluding the rural parts of the state where safeguards (social distancing and masks) are largely ignored. Starting in October our weekly case count has been increasing throughout the Commonwealth, particularly in NOVA and SWVA, and NWVA

 


Looking at the weekly case count, we see that the numbers are higher than at any other point in the pandemic.


Regional growth rates (in fraction per day) continue to show degradation over the past three weeks. Note: It is easier to show a decline when the prior numbers increased. The current growth rates for the different regions are shown below.


Region

Rt

NOVA

0.992

Central VA

0.998

Hampton Roads/Eastern VA

1.012

SW VA

0.982

NW VA

0.985


The entire state is increasing with Rt=1.008


The following table shows the number per 100K for each region. Again, NOVA and Eastern VA are doing the best, and the mountainous regions in NW & SW continue having more cases. The concerning aspect is that in all regions the numbers for last week are significantly higher than the preceding three weeks. What is most concerning is that SW & NW VA are hitting significantly higher caseloads.

Daily Cases/100,000 

Region

Last month

Last week

NOVA

42.4

60.9

Eastern

55.0

81.2

Central

50.6

79.9

NW

56.4

113.6

SW

66.1

68.8


The following charts show all five regions of the Commonwealth over time.

The individual line charts show the unfiltered data per day, coupled with the trend lines. 


The trend lines show the different periods of growth.  


Early in the pandemic, the different parts of VA were functioning largely independently, with NOVA mimicking the northern states, and Hampton Roads mimicking the southern states. Since September 1, the regions have trended together. Starting in late September, NoVA and SWVA diverged from the rest of the state, a trend that continues today.


Currently SWVA has the greatest number of cases even though they have half the population of NOVA.  


Note that the effects at both ends of the chart are probably artifacts of the (seven-day polynomial filtering I use for averaging); the filter is poorly constrained in the first and last few days of the time history.  For those technically inclined, the filter is called a Savitzky-Golay filter, basically a moving window polynomial filter. At the edge (first and last days of the time series), the filter will over-compensate for the trend as it is unconstrained. I recommend the Wikipedia article if anyone is interested in more information, or contact me.

[Lines]









Local/Northern VA:


After the early peak in May (~1,000 cases per day), NOVA saw a sharp drop in all COVID metrics, reaching a broad valley in mid-June (~200 cases/day), which lasted until around August 1st.  By Sept 1, NOVA increased to 300 but the caseload dropped to about 150 by late in the month. Since then we have had a steady increase averaging up to a current value of 1538 cases per day.




Fairfax Co.

 0.985

Arlington Co.

 0.970

City of Alexandria

 1.007

Prince William Co.

 0.992

Loudoun Co.

 1.025


The Number above is Rt:  Rt is an exponential time constant, where the number of cases in a time segment is approximately, n=Ao Rt ^ t, where Ao is the number of cases at the start of the segment, Rt is the exponential growth rate, and t is the number of days since the start of the segment.  So, if Rt is greater than 1, it is growing exponentially, if it is less than one, it is decreasing each day.  


Another way to look at it, todays number are approximately the growth rate times yesterday's numbers.  This is the exponential time constant.  With time constants above 1, we are experiencing exponential growth in the case numbers.

Looking at the trends, the strong downward trend in daily case count we observed since around September 1st has ended.  We now see significant jump in cases in every jurisdiction.





The difference in the colors (contrast) in the NOVA map is increasing. In addition, the NOVA map is warming (as is happening throughout the Commonwealth). At this point, it seems likely that this is related to the fall surge others had predicted.  It is worth noting, though, that Vienna/Oakton is doing better than most of the region. 

 

CURRENT:


 

OCT 1


 

Most localities in NOVA have case counts near or above 40/100K/day which is a dramatic increase since the fall.   In Vienna, for example, we were under five in late September but are now at 50.2/100K/day.

 

Region

Last month

Last week

Growth rate (%/day)

Fairfax County:

Vienna

39.5

50.2

-4.6

McLean

34.9

42.0

-3.6

S. Alexandria

53.0

68.4

-3.0

Reston/Herndon

36.9

43.9

-1.2

Annandale/Fall Church

49.4

63.0

-0.2

Fairfax

34.6

54.2

 1.1

Arlington/Alexandria:

 No. Arlington

34.6

54.2

 1.1

 So. Arlington

38.6

35.4

-5.5

 Alexandria

56.4

55.1

-5.4







Age Distribution: 

I am not updating this section for the time being except for the charts.  I will leave it here as is for a while longer--at times it can be very interesting.  This is particularly so when specific age groups do not follow other groups. For example, teens and 20-somethings surged in early September while the other age groups did not due to the outbreaks at colleges.




Colleges

Given that most colleges are shutting down for the semester in the next week, the report on colleges will be on hiatus.

 

Attribution:

1) You can repost/ share this information in its entirety by forwarding the entire link, or,  2) If you want to share partial content, you must receive my permission. This is proprietary information and I need to make sure you understand what I am saying. If anyone sees that this work being used without attribution, please let me know as soon as possible. I am willing to have an informed discussion/debate on my approach, but I want to make sure the proper context is captured.


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